The Story of My Emergency Relocation — Unexpected Ruin Risks Re-Evaluation (Part 2)
I consider proper risk management to be crucial for all aspects of our life. No matter if we talk about investments, personal finance, or how we spend vacations.
When the war broke out sanctions were escalating so fast that it was clear that I didn't have much time, and soon I might not be able to work and receive money for my work.
Here is the list of ruining short-term risks I was considering in the very first days of the war. Today some of them have already been realized.
New Risks to Consider
Bank System Isolation
Some of the banks were imposed sanctions in the first days, and it was clear that it was just a matter of time before all the rest would be under sanctions. Even though the bank I was using was not banned, it became impossible to receive money because most banks do not send to Russia anymore.
Restrictions were also introduced inside Russia, limiting usage of foreign currency and working with "unfriendly" countries.
Now, making cross-border transactions with Russia is a real headache. There are workarounds, so-called "grey" schemes, but none of them are sustainable in the long run.
There was a risk of accounts suspension at services I use for my work: Github, CI services, AppStore, hosting, Upwork, and many others.
It happened. Some of the services have suspended accounts for Russian users, while others are impossible to pay due to sanctions. There are workarounds, but it's all shaky and may break down any other day.
Internet Shut Down
Russian government propaganda on the TV turned out to be comparably successful. At least many people, especially the elderly, believe in it.
However, what they are doing on the internet has always been unbelievable bullshit.
One of their next probable moves would be to shut down the outer internet entirely or slow it down to cut people from any information.
There is a high risk of closed borders and me spending the rest of my life in a new kind of USSR or North Korea.
The first reason for bringing down the iron curtain is to avoid the emigration of valuable skilled workers such as architects, engineers, doctors, and IT-related folks.
It didn't happen yet, but it may happen any day.
The Russian government may easily say: "It's too dangerous in the outer world, full of unfriendly people. So you better stay here. To save you, here is the travel visa required to leave Russia".
As soon as the Russian government begins massive mobilization, it will be impossible to leave Russia for anyone older than 18yo. They are not hurrying with it because it's risky and would hit hard the political image of the government.
In my opinion, as soon they find a reason from the government's propaganda point of view, they will do it.
People who openly state against war can now be sentenced to 15 years of prison due to the brand new laws recently accepted in Russia.
Things that the Russian government did and future consequences of it will inevitably lead to a rise of frustrated disagreeing people. No doubt there is no limit to the level of violence the government is ready to achieve its goals.
Military Actions in My Hometown
Even though my hometown is comparably close to the Ukraine border, it is far enough from the military actions. At least now.
TBH, I don't want even think about this risk so terrifying it is.
However, it's better to put nothing out of consideration to reasonably evaluate the situation.
Dealing With New Risks
Ironically some time ago, I've been drafting a post about the pitfalls of living in countries with not very consistent and people-oriented political systems. I considered a list of risks that I had to get prepared for.
In real life, the whole thing turned out to be 100 times worse than expected in the worst-case scenario.
BTW, absolutely like it always happens with financial models or any other attempt to predict the future reality.
The risks that I started to face with by simply staying in Russia began to threaten my work and career, my family's well-being, and my future life in perspective.
There was no decision other than moving away to a new place where I could safely live and work.