# We Get Bored Because Brain Predicts Its Error Rate

###### #Cognition

If Brain Predicts Its Error Rate then what would be the best error rate prediction?

I believe that the brain's expectation about the error rate is always it's current error rate based on recent experiences.

Why? The world is way too complex, non-linear, random, and unpredictable in general. No matter how good, accurate, and robust the predicting model is, it will inevitably hit a limit in its prediction accuracy. Due to the randomness of the world, it's trying to predict.

So if I'm learning constantly there are 2 possibilities:

- I haven't reached the best prediction accuracy
- I've already reached my learning capacity and hit the possible limit of the prediction accuracy.

In any case, it's beneficial to expect the future error rate rate equal to the current one.

First of all, I like how it aligns with the Martingale definition of the probability theory:

In probability theory, amartingaleis a sequence of random variables (i.e., a stochastic process) for which, at a particular time, the conditional expectation of the next value in the sequence is equal to the present value, regardless of all prior values.

Secondly, it will allow control of the learning process engagement and stop it when it becomes purposeless.

## Learning Process Engagement

**Case 1**: I continue my learning process because my observed prediction error will be decreasing. The observed error would be less than the expected error and cause a positive surprise.

That's how I will get further engaged in the learning process.

(See also: The Surprise. Why better outcome than predicted is rewarded)

## How Learning Process Becomes Boring

**Case 2**: As soon as the learning process gets stuck the error rate stops decreasing. The observed error would be somewhere equal to the expected one. No room for a positive surprise, so dopamine is no longer be released during the process.

That's how we know that we've hit the accuracy limit and it doesn't make sense to go on with the learning process. That's how we eventually get bored with whatever activity.

See also: [[Why don't we get bored with addictions]]

## Comments